Scoring system for choosing a new geo: how operators can choose the best market for expansion

Hello, operators and media buyers! Sometimes you sit there, looking at a map of the world (or articles on a blog about choosing a new geo😊) and think: where should I go to make a fortune and avoid competition? But in reality? Either it’s a meat grinder in Tier-1, where CPA is off the charts and ROI is minimal, or it’s a fiasco in an unknown geo, where payments are slow and local adaptation is a complete mess.

At Uberman Agency (https://uberman.agency/), every day (well, maybe not every day, but often😄) we help our partners find new markets and effectively break into them. Today, we are sharing our proven internal development: a scoring system that allows you to intelligently evaluate geos for entry/expansion instead of guessing. 

This is not theory from books, but a practical approach where mathematics decides where to invest money and resources. Operators will receive a checklist for expansion, and media buying teams will understand where traffic is likely to convert better. No fluff, just substance — with tables, explanations, and a template so you can get started right away.

Why choosing a location is not a lottery, but mathematics

Many companies rush into new markets at random: they read that “Asia is hot this year” and start pouring money into creatives and traffic. And the result? Money down the drain, because they didn’t understand the market, payment systems, or the competition. 

A typical screw-up: an operator enters India — a huge market of 1.4 billion people — but without local payment systems like UPI, deposits are negligible, creatives without Bollywood don’t catch on, and players don’t live longer than their first deposit. Or another case: an attempt to enter DACH, where competition is fierce, and without a pre-built normal retention logic, CAC will be twice as high as LTV. Therefore, without a system, it’s a lottery: 50% of projects take off on luck, the rest sink.

The solution is a scoring system: a checklist on steroids, where the geo is evaluated according to 10+ criteria, from regulations to cultural features. Each criterion is assigned a score, which is multiplied by a weight. The result is a final score that shows whether it is worth getting involved. 

This scoring helps operators choose geos with low CAC and high LTV, and media buyers understand where traffic converts better. Next, we’ll look at how it works, with examples and tables so you can apply it right away.

Scoring criteria: what really matters

Not all criteria are equal — some have a greater impact on profit, others less. They can be divided into 7 main groups with weights (totaling 100%). Next, rate each one from 1 to 10 (1 is a complete failure, 10 is the best), multiply by the weight, and put it in a table. Here is a detailed breakdown with examples:

Criterion	Weight (%)	Description	Example
Regulations	20	Is it easy to obtain a license or operate in a gray area?	PAGCOR in the Philippines – 8/10 (license from $50k, fast), China – 1/10 (bans, offshore platforms required).
Competition	15	Market saturation level—how many players are already there?	Latin America – 7/10 (weak competition, easy to enter), DACH – 3/10 (giants, CAC $200+).
Payments	15	Availability of local methods—is it easy for players to make deposits?	PIX in Brazil – 9/10 (conversions +30%), UPI in India – 8/10 (popular, but localization required).
LTV and CAC	20	Long-term profit vs. the cost of attracting a player.	Colombia – 8/10 (LTV ~$500, CAC ~$100), Germany – 5/10 (LTV $400, CAC $200).
Mobile traffic	10	Percentage of smartphone users—80%+ of iGaming comes from mobile.	Thailand – 9/10 (90%+ mobile), Colombia – 8/10 (85%+).
Cultural features	10	Localization of creatives—do they appeal to the audience?	Anime in Japan – 9/10, soccer in Mexico – 8/10.
Other	10	Economic/political stability, internet coverage, demographics.	Poland – 8/10 (95% internet, stability), Venezuela – 4/10 (chaos, inflation, but high demand).

Additional considerations:

• VPN trends: in gray areas (e.g., India), players use VPNs, which affects traffic. Assess the availability and popularity of VPNs.
• Cross-platform compatibility: in geos with high mobile traffic (Thailand, Colombia), deep and thoughtful adaptation of the platform for mobile can greatly increase conversions.
• Game availability by region: for example, Pragmatic Play operates in Montreal but not in Ontario — check with providers to ensure creatives are not blocked. 
• Payment stability: commissions and gateways to avoid failures.

Conclusion: the table helps operators balance risks and profits — for example, high regulations but weak competition = green light. Media buyers see where traffic converts better: geo with payment systems and mobile provide high LTV with low CAC. It’s easy to check this — just take the data and calculate it, and then follow the examples of how to do it.

How the system works: a step-by-step breakdown

The system is simple but powerful — it allows you to quickly evaluate geos without chaos. Here are the instructions to get started:

• Collect data: Use Statista, Blask, forums, Telegram chats, and field research. But without local connections, this will take months of work and produce a lot of junk, as open data is often outdated or incomplete. For example, Statista provides the size of the Mexican market ($12.37 billion in 2025), but nuances regarding OXXO or local regulations can only be obtained through partners or in-depth analysis.
• Assign points: Each criterion gets a score from 1 to 10, multiplied by its weight. For example, for Poland: regulations 8 (EU license is simple), competition 7, payment systems 8.
• Summarize in a table: Calculate the final score. Here is an example for two geos:

Criterion	Weight (%)	Poland score	Colombia score
Regulations	20	8	7
Competition	15	7	8
Payments	15	8	9
LTV and CAC	20	9	8
Mobile traffic	10	8	8
Cultural features	10	7	8
Other	10	8	6
Final score	100	79.5/100	77.5/100

• Compare and prioritize: Score > 70 – green light, < 50 – red light, don’t go there. Poland ($157.95 million market, Statista) – top choice for a start, Colombia – also a strong option (45% annual growth, Coljuegos licenses).

Case study: The operator wanted to enter Europe, but the scoring showed that Latin America was better. Data from Blask and local forums helped choose Mexico: they connected PIX and set up soccer creatives. Later, when the economy in the region fluctuated, the score was adjusted by adding weight to stability, which saved the budget from losses.

Conclusion: take a table, insert geo data, calculate, and you can immediately see where to go. This is a base you can start with in a couple of days, but for accuracy, you need local data and connections.

Common mistakes and how to avoid them

Operators often think that the main thing is to enter the market, and then everything will fall into place. In reality, there are a bunch of fuckups that eat up the budget. Here’s what to check so you don’t get screwed:

• Ignoring payment methods = low deposits. In Brazil, players don’t want to deposit without PIX — conversions drop by 50%. Solution: study local methods in advance (UPI in India, MoMo in Vietnam) and include them in your scoring.
• Blind bet on Tier-1 = high CAC, low ROI. In DACH, competition is fierce, CAC is average, and without a ramified retention system, LTV may not pay off. Solution: compare in a table with low CAC geos, such as Poland (CPC is 2-3 times cheaper).
• Weak localization = creatives don’t catch on. In Japan, without anime vibes, players ignore banners. Solution: test cultural features (soccer in Mexico, cricket in India) and include this in the scoring.
• No local partners = launches are delayed. Without lawyers or media buyers, licensing (e.g., PAGCOR) is a bureaucratic nightmare. Solution: look for partners at the start, through TG, LinkedIn, or CPA networks.
• Ignoring VPNs in gray areas = loss of traffic. In India, 30% of players use VPNs (Statista), but without platform adaptation, traffic is lost. Solution: check the popularity of VPNs and add them to the scoring system.

Conclusion: before launching, go through the checklist — regulations, payments, localization, partners. This will save you from draining your budget and give you a profitable start.

For media buyers: how to use scoring for traffic

Media buyers, don’t miss out — scoring works for you too. Instead of pouring traffic anywhere, calculate the score and choose offers with low CAC and high LTV. For example, in Poland, CPC is 2-3 times lower than in Germany, but conversions are the same — regulations are simpler, mobile is 95%, and competition is weak. If you take data from CPA networks (for example, through local chats or platforms like Affhub), choosing offers becomes easier. 

Conclusion: use the table to evaluate geos, select offers with high scores, and test them. This will reduce testing costs and increase ROI.

Why expansion without partners and experts is a gamble

It is possible to do everything by yourself, but without local partners or experts, it will take months of trial and error. Regulations require lawyers, payment systems require integration through local contacts, and creatives require testing with buyers. 

Without this, data from open sources (Statista, Blask) only provides a baseline, and nuances such as local payment systems or VPN trends are left out. For example, an Anjouan license (an alternative to Curacao) takes 3-4 weeks to obtain, but without lawyers, it will take longer. A legal entity in Costa Rica is easier, but you need partners for operations (24/7 support, anti-fraud).

Conclusion: find lawyers, media buyers, or analysts with an understanding of the geography through your network or forums, and the launch will go faster. This is not a must-have, of course, but without the right people, everything will be delayed.

Practical conclusions and template

Don’t guess with AI tarot cards — take the scoring and get started. Choose 2–3 geos, collect data, calculate scores, compare. Test for a month, scale profitable ones. Without local data and partners, the accuracy is lower, but the database will already give results.

You can use the scoring template here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PB1WwLlcvYkvc7MKTFU6kBEjpnJOTkABenF1sNW1bF4/edit?usp=sharing

How to use it? Just insert the geo data, calculate, and you’re done. For operators, it’s a checklist for expansion; for arbitrageurs, it’s a way to select offers. Let’s go, profit won’t make itself! 😎