Is the Ukrainian affiliate market dying?

Hello everyone! For those who don’t know me, let’s quickly introduce ourselves and get down to business. I’m Nikita, Project Manager at AFFHUB Media. I joined AFFHUB in 2024 as a writer; before that, I worked for a long time as a journalist, correspondent, and political commentator. In early 2025, I took over the media department and have been in this role ever since. By the way, here’s a link to my new Instagram—my old one got blocked.

Now that the formalities are out of the way, let’s get down to business. I’ve started writing this post several times since January, but deleted it every time. I thought maybe it wasn’t relevant, or maybe I shouldn’t talk about it publicly. But the AFFHUB conference in Kyiv and talking to so many people finally pushed me to write it. So today, I want to be as honest as possible with you.

As I mentioned, I joined AFFHUB—and the industry in general—in early 2024. Back then, it seemed to me that the Ukrainian affiliate market was in its formative stage, essentially just getting started, and that things would only get better from there. New products and media outlets were actively emerging in the industry, and conferences were drawing thousands of people. Everyone was talking about the importance of developing the Ukrainian affiliate industry, moving away from the CIS format, and so on.

However, 2025 arrived, and everyone began to notice a certain decline. At the time, many also believed this was a temporary issue, not a global trend. Nevertheless, by 2026, it became clear—the Ukrainian affiliate marketing market was in trouble. And there are several reasons for this.

Reason 1 – War and Migration

It’s no secret that millions of people left Ukraine when the war began. And after the initial mass migration, the market continued to function—simply because it had, in a sense, purged itself of many Russian products. This opened the door for Ukrainian companies and created new opportunities. But the migration, which continued, gradually began to kill this very market over time.

Large companies and entire teams are moving from Ukraine to Europe or other regions. Yes, new products continue to appear on the market, but proportionally, there are still fewer of them every year.

And while previously these migrating companies still kept an eye on Ukraine—developing their media presence here, sending delegations to offline events, and considering a return—with each passing year of the war, there are fewer and fewer of them. Teams have already settled abroad, put down roots, and most of them are unlikely to return to Ukraine even after the war ends.

Reason 2 – Pressure on Direct Brands

It’s no secret that direct advertisers are among the biggest players in the Ukrainian affiliate market. And it seems everyone can see by now that there are problems with legal casinos in the country.

In the last year alone, we’ve seen several major players shut down. And the pressure on those who remain continues to mount. This, in turn, is leading brands to invest more cautiously in media. It’s even starting to seem like the regulator will eventually shut down all official casinos in Ukraine. Of course, we hope that’s not the case. After all, we’ve seen from the example of India what happens when legal gambling dies out in a country.

But even the mere threat of such a scenario is having a major impact on the Ukrainian affiliate market. For a long time, direct advertisers were among the biggest players here. Consequently, no direct advertisers means no budgets for the entire infrastructure built around them.

This also includes other recurring “events” (we won’t go into details; everyone understands this perfectly well anyway) that are forcing more and more brands to move from the media sphere into the gray market.

Reason 3 — A Shift in Market Philosophy

Another trend that has been developing for quite some time. It so happened that all companies began to calculate budgets and analyze the effectiveness of their campaigns (by the way, a separate article will be published on this topic).

And actually, that’s a good thing. After all, it prevents blatantly empty projects from making money out of thin air. But on the other hand, it significantly reduces the room for maneuver for truly high-quality projects.

A clear example

I think most of those who attended the AFFHUB AFFILIATE CULT 2026 conference felt something similar. Were there any complaints about the organizers? Everything went smoothly and was well-organized (and I’m not just saying this as a representative of the organizing company; there were truly very few issues regarding the organizational aspects. Of course, aside from jokes about the food—which, by the way, was plentiful—the only issue was the lines during the first half-hour. But seriously—I doubt this moment was critical to the conference’s overall success).

But despite the fact that everything was fine, many were left with a strange aftertaste from this event, one that’s quite difficult to put into words even for me, a writer with years of experience. And so I’d just like to quote a comment by Ivan Zayets, well-known to everyone in the industry:

“Everyone is writing conclusions about AFFHUB, comparing it to bourgeois conferences, writing about this or that speaker format. But I’ll just remind you that this is the last conference left in Ukraine.”

What This Leads To

The reasons listed above, along with a number of others, result in the market losing truly high-quality products that have been developed through years of hard work. Specialists are leaving the market along with these products. Some are leaving the industry altogether, while others are turning to the bourgeoisie.

And at first glance, this may seem like a minor problem. However, let’s go back to the beginning.

What caused the Ukrainian market to start growing rapidly in the first place? One of the key reasons is the exit of major players from the Russian Federation. Amid rising patriotism, Ukrainian companies simply began refusing to cooperate with Russians (and let’s be honest, most openly Russian companies also stopped working with Ukrainian products). In fact, the largest players disappeared from the market, and Ukrainian companies took their place.

And so now, if the trend continues and the Ukrainian affiliate infrastructure leaves the market, what existed before could very quickly return to take its place.

And this isn’t a prediction, but simple logic. Despite all the problems listed above, the Ukrainian market remains large and attractive. There are many specialists here who can be lured away with big money. Will our market benefit from this? Definitely not.

What should be done about this?

We’ve discussed the problem and the possible consequences. But what about solutions?

Our colleagues at UAGEEK have previously written a high-quality piece on the systemic crisis in the Ukrainian affiliate space. So, rather than going into detail here about cooperation with Russia, I recommend clicking the link to read specifically about that aspect.

However, if we look at the problem more broadly, there are many other issues in the Ukrainian affiliate market. As we’ve already said, the market has changed. And ultimately, this could lead to several scenarios.

The first is that the community will continue to follow the path that worked before. This is the simplest option. But ultimately, it will lead to the demise of the industry. The second is to refocus on the Western market and gradually forget about the Ukrainian one. This path is also relatively simple, but the result will be the same as in the first case. The only significant difference is that some projects will survive.

And the third scenario is the most difficult—saving the Ukrainian affiliate marketing industry. Do we have a recipe for this? If we did, we would definitely share it with you. Of course, we have certain specific solutions that can help with some problems. And we’ll tell you about them a little later.

However, a global problem requires global solutions. A single project cannot do this. And the market must unite in order to weather this together.

And of course, we must remember that time is the best medicine, and history is cyclical. We saw the market peak a few years ago. And every peak is followed by a downturn. And that, too, will eventually end. The only question is how long it will last and which companies will survive until then.

However, it is precisely difficult times that create strong brands. And I sincerely wish for everyone reading this to see the Ukrainian affiliate market Great again!